To Attack or Not? The Realities Behind Israel’s Threats Against Iran

WANA (Oct 11) – Despite Netanyahu’s repeated threats and extensive international media coverage, no practical action has been taken by Israel against Iran. But what are the reasons for this delay? Here are five key factors that have prevented Israel from attacking Iran and show that the decision is more complex than it initially seemed.

1. The Risk of Shifting the Battlefield in Hezbollah’s Favor

An attack on Iran would undoubtedly provoke a swift and serious response from Tehran, potentially shifting the battleground to Hezbollah in Lebanon. This would give Hezbollah the opportunity to rebuild and strengthen its position.

Israel has spent years trying to contain and, as it claims, destroy Hezbollah, and any conflict with Iran could jeopardize this goal. Tel Aviv does not want to inadvertently give Hezbollah breathing space by attacking Iran.

Hypotheses on the Next Destabilization Attempts by the U.S. and Israel

WANA (Oct 08) – Following the destruction of Gaza, the martyrdom of Hamas leaders, and efforts to suppress resistance groups, Israel is now aiming to dismantle the political structures in Gaza. The goal is to merge Gaza with the Palestinian Authority, but this project requires eliminating and weakening the arms of resistance.   From Israel’s […]

08 October 2024 Read More...

2. Europe’s Fear of a Widespread War

Europe is deeply concerned about the possibility of another major conflict, similar to the war in Ukraine. Given its dependence on energy resources and worries about economic instability, European countries fear the potential consequences of a new war in the Middle East, especially one involving oil.

Such a conflict would not only destabilize energy markets but also worsen the fragile economic situation in many European countries. As a result, strong European support for an Israeli attack on Iran is unlikely due to these concerns.

Seven Scenarios of Israel’s Possible Response to Iran’s Missile Attack

WANA (Oct 06) – Amid rising tensions and ongoing conflicts in the region, and following a missile attack by Iran during Operation “True Promise 2,” various analyses have emerged regarding how Israel might respond.   The following seven scenarios outline potential Israeli responses, each carrying its own implications for regional stability and international relations.   […]

06 October 2024 Read More...

3. Uncertain Political Climate in the U.S.

The U.S., one of Israel’s main allies, is currently dealing with internal issues, particularly as elections approach. Both Democrats and Republicans are in a delicate position, and due to global pressure on Israel following recent conflicts, they are refraining from offering Netanyahu overt and broad support.

In other words, Israel cannot currently rely on full and unconditional backing from Washington, as the U.S. also seeks to avoid getting involved in a new war in the Middle East.

4. Uncertainty About Iran’s Response

Tehran has repeatedly stated that any attack on Iranian soil would be met with a serious and harsh response. Israel has no accurate estimate of the scale and intensity of such a response, and this uncertainty has made the decision to attack extremely risky for Tel Aviv.

Iran’s military and political capabilities in recent years have proven that its threats are not baseless, and Israel knows that any military action could have severe consequences for itself.

Are Iran and Israel on the Brink of All-Out War?

WANA (Oct 09) – In the heart of West Asia, where the shadows of tensions, hostilities, and foreign interference loom large over the lands of this ancient continent, a significant and unanswered question arises: Is a full-scale war between Iran and Israel on the horizon? Will the longstanding conflicts between these two escalate into an […]

09 October 2024 Read More...

5. Internal Unity Against External Threats

One of the hopes of Israel and its allies has been to exploit internal divisions within Iran to weaken it. However, experience has shown that whenever Iran faces an external threat, its people, instead of deepening internal divisions, unite.

An attack on Iran would likely lead to greater social cohesion and solidarity, neutralizing all Western and Israeli efforts to create internal instability.

For this reason, Israel understands that any military action could, rather than weaken Iran, have the opposite effect.

In conclusion, despite all the threats and claims, there are many reasons why Israel has yet to attack Iran. From military and political risks to international reactions and Iran’s internal social dynamics, all these factors have made this decision extremely complex and risky for Israel.